Another week, and another analyst firm giving its two cents on what to expect in the future regarding the ongoing NAND/Memory shortage. This time, in particular, the prediction focuses on NAND technology, which is primarily used in SSD storage. According to a report by TrendForce, we could be nearing the end of the tunnel thanks to the efforts of manufacturers who have been working to bring more fabrication facilities online to produce increased amounts of product. This, combined with a continued decrease in demand for smartphones and notebooks (thanks to higher prices related to current supply shortages), is expected to create an environment where supply once again exceeds demand sometime in the second half of 2027. The report tracks how in 2026 sales for notebooks have already dropped by 10% and are projected to continue a downward trend.
“The notebook market is also expected to remain under pressure. Following an estimated shipment decline of around 10% in 2026, notebook shipments are projected to contract slightly again in 2027 due to persistently high component costs, including memory and CPUs.”
– Trendforce
Shipments of server platforms from all major manufacturers continue on an upward trend in 2026, and demand for them is expected to remain strong in 2027. While components such as memory and storage will continue to be needed for servers, it’s believed that, for NAND, between increased production and decreased consumer demand, supplies will finally end the shortage in the consumer sector in 2027.
Sadly, even if this forecast pans out to be accurate, PC enthusiasts are unlikely to truly enjoy its benefits for at least another twelve months. In addition, there’s no guarantee that once supplies reach acceptable levels, product prices will come down to pre-2026 levels. Not to mention, multiple firms and industry execs have said they do not foresee memory supplies returning until the next decade. Regardless, perhaps it’s best to take what rays of sunshine we can get, and hopefully at least some amount of normalcy may return next year.
Discussion (4 replies)
Join Discussion →it feels like there are two different trends at cross purposes here
at some point in future they both have to intersect
ADATA chairman warns DRAM shortage will last another 10 years
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$1.65 trillion "hidden" future obligations for the tech giants
there is a lack of future income visibility to support this more certain, future liability.
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Agreed and honestly this is the first report I've seen stating anything is getting better next year. I'm not really buying it since so many are agreeing that we shouldn't see supplies leveling out until 2028 at the earliest and possibly not until sometime in 2030 or beyond.
They can't really predict it. Just throwing numbers out there like a blind man throwing a dart.
The memory situation wont be solved until HBM memory is improved with something like 3D or vertical-channel-transistor DRAM so they get more capacity per wafer. Which some experts estimate that is still a decade out, hence the "10 years" comment from him.
They could have a break through tomorrow on something that could alleviate the shortage much sooner or never.
Similar thing happened with NAND flash memory and didn't get fixed (and cheaper RAM) until they went vertically 3D with it. Which meant more capacity per wafer for them. Basically, we need the same thing to happen to DRAM or possibly HBM4 will fix it sooner.
No one knows.
Heck, the AI bubble could crash next month and all those promised contracts could be cancelled which would free up the fabs to use those wafers for DRAM instead of HBM.
Where's my frickin' 64TB SSD???? :mad: