Is Microsoft in for another tough console generation? That’s what analysts seem to believe, as many have hedged their bets on the newly unveiled PlayStation 5 already. Ampere Analysis’s Piers Harding-Rolls (via GamesIndustry.biz), for one, has released a report that predicts Sony’s next-generation console selling as many as 66 million units by the end of 2024. On the other, more disappointing hand, Microsoft is expected to shift only 37 million Xbox Series X systems.
At such an early stage, we can only assume that both systems have the potential for selling well, but Harding-Rolls’s report does point out an interesting trend, in that the console market keeps shrinking. Sales actually peaked with the original Xbox and PlayStation 2, which sold 179 million units combined, while the PlayStation 3/Xbox 360 and PlayStation 4/Xbox One generations sold 171 million and 157 million units combined, respectively.
“While the market is still substantial and likely to be consistently large at least during the next console life cycle, what has been proven over the last decade is that even with significant resources ploughed into growing adoption on a global basis, including more serious entry into a series of additional territories, substantial hardware unit sales growth for Sony and Microsoft combined has not materialised,” Harding-Rolls said.
This trend will likely continue, as the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X certainly won’t come cheap. Harding-Rolls believes that both consoles will launch in the $450 to $500 price range.